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☆ Where do Treasury yields go from here? Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron weighs in
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Treasury yields shot up last year, and investors flocked to allocating to cash which have yielded around 5% or even more. Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Jim Caron believes the 10-year Treasury yield is very likely to hover between 5% and 5.5%. Caron, who is chief investment officer at its Portfolio Solutions Group, explained that historically, 10-year Treasury yields are "usually a good match" for nominal gross domestic product. How rising yields affect stocks But are rising yields bad for stocks, as commonly thought? "If yields are rising because the economy is running hot, and data and labor markets are stronger, the rising yields need not negatively affect stocks."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron, Caron, CNBC's Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, Solutions Locations: U.S

☆ This stalled tech juggernaut is starting to break out again, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia (NVDA) was surprisingly quiet in the back half of 2023 despite some amazing earnings beat-and-raise quarters. Only just on Monday did NVDA finally break free from the technical range that held the stock captive below the undoubtedly psychologically important $500 resistance level. I think the answer is yes, there's more room for the stock to run. Finally breaking $500 Back to Nvidia, the clear winner of the massive rotation into semiconductors as we charge towards the exponential age. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: NVDA, we're, Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer, benchmarked, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, IBM, Apple, Microsoft, Consumer Locations: China, Vegas

☆ How to make your money work for you over the next decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( James Faris | William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.

Persons: —, Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries

REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the U.S. Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term, driven by rising fiscal spending, top executives said. "Fiscal spending has not abated. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hit 5% last month for the first time since 2007. Demand for long-dated Treasuries has slipped in the last six months from central banks, U.S. regional banks and sovereign wealth funds, said Jim Esposito, who jointly runs Goldman's global banking and markets division. "Our economists think most central banks will start cutting rates next year, albeit slowly.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Goldman Sachs, Ashok Varadhan, Goldman's, Fitch, Moody's, government's, Treasuries, Jim Esposito, they've, Esposito, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, QE, China

☆ Bank of Japan needs to walk away from ultra-loose monetary policy to support yen, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAmong major central banks, the Bank of Japan has been most notorious for its ultra-loose monetary policy, but that must come to an end soon to support the country's currency, according to Deutsche Bank. "For the yen to do something meaningfully better you really need more of a dovish pivot in every other central bank, or the Bank of Japan really has to start walking away from quantitative easing and negative rates," Tim Baker G10 FX strategist at Deutsche Bank told CNBC's Street Signs Asia. watch nowQuantitative easing is when a central bank tries to increase the liquidity in its financial system by buying long-term government bonds from the country's largest banks. The BOJ has used various quantitative easing tools to reflate the economy in the last three decades. The central bank has been cautious in unwinding its long-held ultra-easy monetary policy, wary of any premature moves that could potentially derail recent nascent improvements in the economy.

Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Tim Baker, CNBC's, Baker Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Fed, ECB Locations: Hakone, Japan, Bank of Japan

And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.

Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ America is in a 'cardboard-box recession,' demand for services is cooling, and inflation could surge again, Charles Schwab's top global strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Jeffrey Kleintop warned of a "cardboard-box recession" and a credit crunch for small businesses. Charles Schwab's top global strategist flagged a services slowdown and predicted stubborn inflation. (Kleintop warned that inflation has rarely plunged and stayed flat and low in past cycles, and suggested a period of higher, more volatile price growth was likely.) "We don't know how deep and how broad this is. It's one of those things where you just don't know how many things could get broken when it starts to move."

Persons: Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab's, Taylor Swift, —, Kleintop, Walt, Banks, It's, We've, it's Organizations: Service, Walt Disney, Bloomberg, PMI Locations: —, Florida, Japan

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

☆ Stocks may be at risk as the Fed's rate hikes and bond disposals squeeze valuations, hedge-fund billionaire David Tepper says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

David Tepper expects stock valuations to fall due to interest rates and quantitative tightening. The Fed has also hiked interest rates from nearly zero to north of 5% over the last 18 months. As a result, stocks can fall if their earnings fall (earnings compression), or if their earnings multiple shrinks (multiple compression.) His latest bet underscores the big returns available to investors at virtually no risk thanks to higher rates. "Interest rates are to asset prices like gravity is to the apple," Buffett said in 2013.

Persons: David Tepper, Tepper, —, CNBC's Scott Wapner, Warren Buffett, Buffett Organizations: Service, Appaloosa Management, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Nvidia

☆ No strong case for jacking up bank charges: ECB's Wunsch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Sept 21 (Reuters) - There are no strong arguments for the European Central Bank to increase mandatory reserves for banks, Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday, weighing in on a key debate about a potential move to tighten policy further. The ECB cut to zero the rate it pays to banks on mandatory reserves earlier this year. Some policymakers are now pushing for an increase in the reserve requirement, in part to reduce losses associated with the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks. "I don't see any strong argument for using movements in the reserve requirements when we still have this huge portfolio (of bonds) that we can reduce," Wunsch told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. But Wunsch said that reducing central bank losses should not be the objective of monetary policy and changing the rules now could make commercial banks wary of taking part in future stimulus schemes.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Banks, Divya Chowdhury, Balazs Koranyi, Jane Merriman, Chizu Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Belgian, Mumbai

☆ Bank of England bond sales creating a 'selling gold at the bottom' moment, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The Bank of England's rapid pace of bond sales is creating a "selling gold at the bottom" moment for investors, according to Christopher Mahon, head of dynamic real return at Columbia Threadneedle. Now, despite the fact that the value of gilts has fallen dramatically since then, the central bank is unwinding those holdings, and fast. In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the Treasury to indemnify £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). The Bank of England, for its part, disputes that the asset sales are affecting markets in any substantive way.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Christopher Mahon, Mahon, BOE, it's, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters LONDON, Columbia, U.K . Treasury, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank, U.K, . Bank of England, CNBC, Monetary, BNP Locations: City, London, Britain

☆ Treasury yield jump is not 'death to equities,' BofA's Savita Subramanian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The latest jump in Treasury yields is not "death to equities," BofA Securities' Savita Subramanian told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. In fact, Subramanian sees the bond move as a positive signal — rather than an ominous sign for the economy. In May, Subramanian hiked her S&P 500 year-end target by 7.5% to 4,300, with a range as high as 4,600. Even though she believes the corporate America has learned to do more with less, Subramanian suggests stocks won't go up in a straight line. But I do think we are at a point where we have some visibility with what the Fed is going to do," Subramanian said.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, CNBC's, Subramanian Organizations: Securities, Companies Locations: America

☆ The Bank of England is facing major losses on its bond purchases — and it's set to get much worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the U.K. Treasury to backstop £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). It saw the BOE accrue £895 billion worth of bond holdings while interest rates were historically low. However, the pace at which the central bank has had to tighten monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation means the costs have risen more sharply than anticipated. watch now"First, interest rates have risen far above levels assumed in the fiscal watchdog's spring forecasts. "On the other hand, though, while QE gilts are not sold, the BoE pays Bank Rate on the ~£900bn reserves it created to buy them.

Persons: Dan Kitwood, BOE, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Imogen Bachra, BoE, Bachra, QE Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Deutsche Bank ., Treasury, AFP, Deutsche Bank, Bank, NatWest, — Locations: —

☆ What happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.

Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, —, Ben Bernanke, ”, Cahill, “, Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson

☆ The Fed may be done hiking rates but there's another policy move that still poses a big risk to stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Bank of England forecasts 150 billion pound loss from QE gilt programme
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England forecast on Tuesday that it would make a net loss of just over 150 billion pounds ($193 billion) over the next 10 years as it unwinds its quantitative easing (QE) gilt purchases, up from 100 billion pounds projected in April. In the short term, the BoE expects the government to pay around 40 billion pounds a year in 2023, 2024 and 2025, roughly 10 billion pounds a year more than its last estimate in April. Markets currently expect BoE rates to peak at 5.75% later this year, up from around 5% at the time of April's report. The BoE projections assume holdings continue to fall at their current target rate of 80 billion pounds a year. That is still more than 50 billion pounds greater than forecast in April.

Persons: Rishi, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, David Milliken, Paul Sandle, Kylie MacLellan, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, Conservative Party, Thomson

But as some argue, in its quest to avoid another taper tantrum, the Fed delayed that two-pronged tightening too long, which has partly contributed to the stickiness of inflation today. This lengthy buildup may have averted another taper tantrum, but tied the Fed's hands on raising rates even as inflation was roaring back. Markets thought this not only meant the Fed would soon "taper" its bond purchases, but also raise interest rates. The Fed and markets have learned their lessons from the taper tantrum. Maybe the taper tantrum illustrates that it wasn't as planned and consistent as it should have been," he said.

☆ Academics weigh in on how BOJ's Ueda can exit easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At the meeting on Monday, Ueda - himself a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-educated academic - said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy as it would take time for inflation to sustainably hit its 2% target, the minutes showed. Keeping long-term interest rates low for too long would also expose Japan to speculative market attack, Kiyotaki said. University of Tokyo professor Tsutomu Watanabe said Japan's inflation expectations have heightened to levels close to those in the United States and Europe, the minutes showed. But Shinichi Fukuda, also an University of Tokyo academic, said achieving wage growth alone won't fix economic woes. "Japan is no longer in a state of deflation thanks to the BOJ's extraordinary monetary easing.

☆ Quantitative tightening: What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. Investors and banks calibrate their strategies to the amount of money in the financial system, he noted. Then, central banks started withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Even worse, many banks have large holes on their balance sheets because central banks have simultaneously jacked up interest rates. While government debt levels have skyrocketed in recent years, the cost of servicing that debt has been tamped down by the willingness of central banks to buy large chunks of it.

As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.

☆ Bank of England projects 100 billion pound loss for QE programme
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of England estimated on Friday that its quantitative easing programme would rack up a total financial loss of 100 billion pounds ($125 billion) by 2033 which will need to be funded by the government. Under the terms of the QE programme, which first started in 2009 after the global financial crisis, Britain's government received back the interest payments on government bonds bought by the BoE, but agreed to compensate it for any future losses. The BoE said cost estimates were highly sensitive to the path of interest rates. ($1 = 0.8027 pounds)Reporting by David Milliken, editing by Andy BruceOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank reserves could fall by $2.5 trillion as the Fed reduces its balance sheet, Fitch Ratings says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank reserves could fall between $900 billion to $2.5 trillion by year's end, Fitch Ratings said. That's as the Fed's quantitative tightening dries up liquidity in the banking system. "System-wide banking liquidity indicators are still robust, but our baseline projection is for reserves to fall significantly by USD900 billion to USD2.5 trillion by year-end," the ratings agency said. When it began trimming its balance sheet in June, the Fed held almost $9 trillion in such assets. "QT will also put downward pressure on bank deposits, boosting the system-wide loans-to-deposits ratio," Fitch said.

☆ A flawed but useful economic model for a bleak age
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Modern Monetary Theory, which endorses unlimited government spending, was all the rage during the years of ultra-low interest rates. John Cochrane’s fiscal theory fits the bill. Cochrane, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, recently published “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”. Not only are high interest rates incapable of arresting inflation, fiscal theory suggests they actually make the problem worse. Nor do bondholders operate with rational expectations, as fiscal theory suggests.

☆ There's no new bull market yet, Morgan Stanley says. Here's the smart way to stay invested safely and book bigger profits from the future bull run.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some experts think they will kickstart a new bull market in stocks. He says investors should be cautious and de-emphasize tech stocks until the market finds a new low. "Bank stocks are leading indicators, and we would be hard pressed to find a new bull market where they were underperforming," as they are now, he wrote. The right time to invest more heavily in tech stocks will be after a clear long-term low has been established. "We see little evidence that a new bull market has begun and believe the bear still has unfinished business."

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